Of course, I don’t need to tell you that the more chances a team creates the more likely they are of scoring. But do the teams creating the most chances score the most goals?
The stats below show the chance conversion rate for each individual team. Not surprisingly, top of the league Manchester United also top the chance conversion table by a long way converting 21% of chances. This is higher than last season (19%) suggesting too many missed chances could have cost them the title last season. The addition of prolific Robin Van Persie, already on 19 league goals, is a major factor in this increase.
At the opposite end of the scale, again unsurprisingly bottom of the league Queens Park Rangers are also bottom here with a mere 8% chance conversion rate. This is a decrease from the 11% they achieved last year when they only just avoided relegation. Last seasons table toppers Manchester City achieved an 18% chance conversion rate last year. This has significantly dropped this year with them only achieving 14% thus far.
Liverpool’s issues last season were well documented as they only had a 9% conversion rate. They’ve improved this season up to 14% which is a pretty big jump. The massive jump would be down to Luis Suarez’ exploits infront of goal – he’s improved from 10% to 18% – again another massive increase.
Clear-Cut Chance Conversion
Moving on from general chances created, if we focus our attention more specifically to clear cut chances created, as shown in the data below, we get some surprising results.
West Ham are this time at the foot of the chart converting only 27% of clear cut chances. However, this isn’t really the surprising part as they are also 18th in the chance conversion rate (12%). Reading top the table with a massive 53%. Considering they are 19th in the league, this is hugely impressive but points to the fact that they’re not creating enough of these else they’d be higher up the table.
Reading also have the 4th best chance conversion rate with 15%. Jimmy Kebe is a major factor in this with his personal chance conversion (36%). Of course, not forgetting ‘super sub’ Adam Le Fondre who has contributed 10 goals this season with a 26% conversion rate.
In conclusion, the data above clearly shows that teams battling bravely against relegation, including Reading and Southampton who face problems in other departments. It can also be said that a lack of goals scored per chances created has caused a huge dent in Manchester City’s chances of retaining the title and if they aren’t to win the league this year, this needs to be addressed to again challenge for silverware.
Manchester United’s Robin van Persie has actually improved his chance conversion by 2% up to 23%. He seems to be the difference in winning the title this season although, in comparison, Edin Dzeko’s chance conversion is at 25% (i.e. better than van Persie’s). The problem is that Manchester City manager Roberto Mancini has only started Dzeko on 11 occasions this season which is surprising as this season they’ve required a lethal finisher.
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Categories: Arsenal (NN), Aston Villa, Chelsea, EPL Index Featured Article, EPL Index Statistical Comparisons, Everton, Fulham, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester Utd, Newcastle Utd, Norwich City, QPR, Reading, Southampton, Stoke City, Sunderland, Swansea City, Tottenham Hotspur, West Bromwich Albion, West Ham United, Wigan
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West Ham have only themselves to blame for having such a low conversion rate. Alas, this is to be expected when you have a donkey posing as a so-called striker in the team.
True George. Just to back up your comment Andy Carroll’s chance conversion is 9%! Also interestingly Mark Noble has a CC of 66%. He has only scored 4 goals but coming from 6 shots that is impressive.
Stats can also be deceiving, Noble’s goals are all penalties! (Still an impressive strike rate from the spot)
Oh yes of course! My mistake!
Carroll has actually improved this season – his chance conversion last season was, a shockingly low, 5%!
His clear-cut chance conversion is also up from 19% to 33% but he’s only had 3 three created for him this year.
I was wondering what the determining factors are for a “clear cut chance?”
A clear cut chance is when a a player is in a one-on-one with the keeper, has a tap-in, any free header or shot (unmarked) with just the keeper to beat etc.
Basically when the player is expected to score.
Hope this helps
That does make sense, at least to a point. I would say that for the most part it is fairly cut and dry, but this is something that could also be considered as subjective.
For instance: would the sergio aguero goal against Liverpool be a clear cut chance? he was one on one with the keeper. I would say it’s not, but could see an argument for it being one.
I see what you mean Todd, maybe it’s not the most reliable of data in terms of accuracy due to it coming down to a matter of opinion whether it was a clear cut chance or just a chance created.
However it is the same people recording the data for each team in the league so consistency does occur. Furthermore I think it does provide a solid comparison to chance conversion as results show.