It’s clear from Arsenal’s odds for winning the league, which currently stand at 40/1, that they are having far from a vintage season. Indeed, in terms of Premiership aspirations, it seems like the Gunners’ campaign is virtually over already.
In order to find out where Arsenal’s problems might lie, I have compared their games so far this season with data for the corresponding games last season (ignoring the Man Utd game, as I cannot see any value in looking at a game that Arsenal lost 8-2).
We can compare this season to last, using a sample of seven corresponding fixtures.
- 1257 Final Third Passes (FTP) this season vs 999 last season
- 972 final third passes completed (FTPC) this season vs 677 last season
- 5 goals this season vs 8 goals last season
- 115 shots this season vs 113 last season
- 57 shots in the box this season vs 74 last season
- 176 crosses this season (including crosses from corners) vs 129 crosses last season
This term, then, Arsenal have notched 1 goal per 194 completed passes in the final third; Last season they averaged 1 goal per 84 final third passes.
The data speaks for itself: 77% final third passes completed this year, against just 67% last year in the same seven-game sample. Yet in spite of this, last year Arsenal scored 3 more goals. In short, Arsenal may be more accurate with final third passes than last season, but they appear to be less penetrating for all that.
The sale of Robin van Persie appears to be seriously hurting the team and, barring the goals against Southampton and West Ham, Arsenal are simply not scoring enough.
It is clear that Arsenal are having more shots from outside the box, suggesting one problem that might be addressed by Arsene Wenger. And while Arsenal may be making more crosses this campaign, fans should not get too excited. Last season in the corresponding sample, Arsenal played a more narrow game, it’s true, but were more direct as a result, and managed to score more goals.
Arsenal desperately need to sign a goal scorer to replace RVP’s 30 league goals in 38 games last season. This is not a controversial opinion, of course, but the data makes that need even more abundantly clear.
Here is a detailed statistical overview of Arsenal’s statistics for corresponding games during the 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 seasons:
| Match | FTP/FTPC | Shots | SOT | Total Passes | Crosses | IB | OB | LB | FT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vs Sunderland 12/13 | 202/162 | 23 | 3 | 703/637 | 25 | 11 | 12 | 20 | 0-0 |
| Vs Sunderland 11/12 | 176/134 | 21 | 6 | 564/483 | 26 | 13 | 8 | 31 | 2-1 |
| Vs Stoke 12/13 | 159/117 | 17 | 2 | 517/420 | 28 | 8 | 9 | 45 | 0-0 |
| Vs Stoke 11/12 | 155/105 | 17 | 5 | 515/411 | 16 | 9 | 8 | 46 | 1-1 |
| Vs Liverpool 12/13 | 126/85 | 11 | 5 | 491/413 | 13 | 5 | 6 | 38 | 0-2 |
| Vs Liverpool 11/12 | 110/64 | 10 | 7 | 412/319 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 48 | 1-2 |
| Vs Man City 12/13 | 179/144 | 11 | 4 | 638/561 | 17 | 5 | 6 | 32 | 1-1 |
| Vs Man City 11/12 | 129/86 | 14 | 6 | 467/377 | 19 | 6 | 8 | 44 | 1-0 |
| Vs Chelsea 12/13 | 176/128 | 17 | 4 | 470/413 | 36 | 9 | 8 | 20 | 1-2 |
| Vs Chelsea 11/12 | 124/89 | 13 | 4 | 496/430 | 25 | 9 | 4 | 32 | 0-0 |
| Vs Norwich 12/13 | 199/160 | 14 | 5 | 669/587 | 25 | 7 | 7 | 36 | 1-0 |
| Vs Norwich 11/12 | 152/93 | 20 | 11 | 554/440 | 16 | 18 | 2 | 42 | 1-2 |
| Vs QPR 12/13 | 216/176 | 22 | 9 | 599/526 | 32 | 12 | 10 | 33 | 1-0 |
| Vs QPR 11/12 | 153/106 | 18 | 4 | 499/420 | 19 | 12 | 6 | 35 | 1-0 |
In conclusion, Arsenal have clearly been poor this season in the final third and will have to sign a goalscorer in the January transfer window if they hope to improve in this area.
All of the stats from this article have been taken from the Opta Stats Centre at EPLIndex.com – Subscribe Now (Includes author privileges!) Check out our new Top Stats feature on the Stats Centre which allows you to compare all players in the league & read about new additions to the stats centre.
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Categories: Arsenal (NN), EPL Index Featured Article, EPL Index Statistical Comparisons
Tags: AFC Stats, arsenal crossing stats, Arsenal minus RVP, Arsenal missing RVP, Arsenal Stats, EPL, epl opta stats, EPL Stats, Gunners, Gunners Stats, Opta Stats, premier league, Premier League Stats
This article has had 2,998 Views
Interesting to see it put on paper.
As you might expect, I’d make a couple of comments.
First, these numbers puts RvPs contribution to the team a bit above his season average.
In fact, all the 8 goals in these matches was put by RvP. Which, of course, adds to your point.
But throughout the season he scored roughly 43% of Arsenal’s goals, whilst in these particular matches he scored 100%. (He also assisted another 18,5%, so there is no doubt about his impact for the team being involved in over 60% of the total goals…)
If we compare the first 10 matches this season to last season, Arsenal found themselves at 1 point more than this season, 12 points behind the top compared to 9 this season. They have scored 5 times less. On the opposite side they have conceded 13 goals less.
More suprisingly maybe, RvP scored 1/3 of his goals last season in the first 10 games. And this still put them only 1 point above this seasons standing.
I’m not gonna argue that RvP’s absence is no issue, as it clearly is.
Im merely adding to your info that part of Arsenals strategy to deal with it is playing a bit more cautious defensively, and also reminding myself and everybody else that last season was special in many ways. Arsenal usually have divided their goals amongst many players, and me personally prefers this compared to depending on one player.
Gervinho/Walcott/Podolski/Cazorla have for example provided 10 goals so far this season, whilst the comparable Gervinho/Walcott/Arshavin/Arteta provided a total of 19 throughout the entire last season. Suggesting we will see significantly more goals from the midfield this season to make up for some of the loss of RvP.
Knowing Wenger, I doubt he will follow your advice. But if Giroud can put up half the show RvP gave us last season, I’m not sure Arsenal will suffer as badly as your numbers suggests.
At least I hope so… Oh dear lord, give me strength…
Emiraten your writing style is excellent and your knowledge is excellent so start blogging for EPL.
You’re too kind.
But ok, consider this commenting sessions my puppy stage..
Emiraten I have one for you.
RVP final third passing at Arsenal V MAN UTD…
could show the different styles,,,,,,,,,,
I would read that.
It is uncanny how similar the two Stoke games are data wise. i would love to watch the two games on a split screen and see any differences if any.
Only difference looks like 2 goals V 0.
Last Season Arsenal 74 goals and 4535 Final Third completed passes of which RVP contributed 400.
4535/74 = 1 goal per 61.2 Final third passes completed so very accurate.
RVP only contributed 8% so other players last season were very creative and supported his goal poaching ability.
This season 15 goals and 1347 final third passes completed with Cazorla weighing in with 288.
1347/15= 89.8. 1 goal every 89.8 Final third passes completed.
Ironically on a par with Liverpool this season who are finding it hard to play tiky-taky.
I saw some of the Arsenal game while watching the Everton game and seeing 116 completed passes and 89% pass completion, I think Arsenal cannot blame the forwards this time. Fulham only had 61 final third completed passes so 61/3= 1 goal per 20.33 FTC.
Which team has the best goal to FTC… Yes it is FULHAM.
This was why I could see goals with expectation of Fulham and arsenal scoring but I never saw 3-3.
This was my review of Arsenal v Fulham
Over 1.5 goals in the 2nd half has been seen in 8 of Fulhams last 10 away at Grade A sides
Arsenal have won 12/20 home matches while Fulham have lost by two or more goals in 7/12 trips to top-half teams. (bettor logic who should be renamed random not very logical)
No secret that Arsenal are having problems scoring goals and after predicting the HT score and FT score against QPR this game on the surface looks like a good one to predict.
We have contrasting fortunes in terms of final third passing completion and goals. Before last weekends games Fulham had the best goal to final third pass completed of all the prem teams with one goal every 43 Final third passes. If you look deeper into Arsenal’s final third passing and remove the Southampton game and West Ham then their goal to Final third pass completion was a massive 194 so Arsenal just are not able to penetrate up front and Van Persie is being missed.
Arsenal were very poor at Norwich and were lucky to beat QPR.
Fulham are a Grade C side who could be a Grade B side next season and they will certainly cause Arsenal problems.
Arsenal have a fantastic record at Home to Grade C in last 4 seasons.They have only lost once and won 77%.
Fulham have not won at a Grade A side in the last 4 seasons and if Fulham are going to break that trend they are meeting Arsenal who are lacking in confidence.
This game is sending mixed messages and I am not one for sitting on the fence so;
1 pt Back Over 3 goals @ 2.00
MOTD said Fulham not won at Arsenal for 108 Years.