I am always looking for Sporting trends and a good example is Trap 1 in the Greyhound Derby at Wimbledon where Trap 1 failed to win from 1985 till 2011. In 2009 the Hoodoo struck when Fear Zafonic (Trap 1) was backed into 1.01 on Betfair just as it was caught on the line. Another good trend which was broken is Fulham did not score for 32 games in a row when 0-0 in the Premiership on or after 80 minutes. The run was broken when they beat the 10 men of Liverpool by scoring in the 85th Minute.
A trend that should continue and is growing stronger every season is the Half Time trend where the away team are losing 1-0 in the Premiership.
I opened my excel spreadsheets from 2008 and calculated how many times the current crop of Premiership teams have won in the sample to give a Win Ratio.
If you look at the table below you will see that Arsenal and Stoke have won the most games and 11 Premiership teams have won NONE including Liverpool, Man City and Spurs which I am sure will surprise a few people. Arsenal have the highest win ratio and that is 0.18 which means that they have won 18% of the away games when they are losing 1-0 at Half Time which is not a very high win ratio and they are the best team in this sample in terms of the win ratio.
What is clear is that it is very difficult for a Premiership team to overcome the obstacle of losing 1-0 at Half Time because the sample of 256 games shows that only 4.6% won at Full Time.
Looking at the betting last season when Arsenal were losing 1-0 at HT and Bolton conceded a goal on 50 minutes, the betting market priced Arsenal at 1.8 indicating that Arsenal had a better chance then the toss of a coin to win the game and they did not because Bolton won 2-1 at Full Time.
If you followed the trend when Fulham were losing 2-1 at home after 72 minutes (Half Time 1-0) to Everton and you backed the draw then you would have been rewarded when Steve Sidwell scored to keep the trend going.
- 20/20 1-0 at Half Time this season in the Premiership have ended zero wins by the away team.
- Everton have now gone 46/46 games dating back to 2000 without winning when down by 1-0 at Half Time. I would consider that a strong trend even if it is broken in their next game.
The question is why do Premiership teams struggle when they walk out onto the pitch for the second half?
I offer some suggestions;
- A team will play to a Pre determined tactic and the fact that they are losing may not change that.
- As the clock ticks in the second half and if the away team are still losing then they may become more adventurous and throw players forward and leave themselves exposed at the back which having watched 50 games a month around the world I can confirm that happens quite often.
- If the away team do score first in the second half then often they will play a more conservative approach and this is confirmed by the data.
In the last three seasons (not including this season) there have been 36 games that have ended 1-1 Full Time when the Home team were winning 1-0 at Half Time and 29 games that ended 2-1 Full Time. There have been just 6 away wins which all ended 1-2 Full Time.
What I have identified through point 3 is that the goal expectation of the away team is suppressed when they are losing 1-0 at Half Time.
In order to give prices for a game between two teams the bookmakers will work out the expectation of both teams winning or the draw and they will also look at goal expectation.
In the case of Manchester United, which is a good example, if they win then they will need to score 2 goals or more to overcome the 1-0 deficit but we have already seen that this is going to be a difficult task and that this is less likely to happen than the odds that will be offered during the game.
Have a look at the odds of Manchester United winning next time they are losing at Half Time in an away game. It will certainly not be offering value and it does not matter if they are away at Reading or Arsenal.
Table showing the win ratio of Current Premiership teams since 2008 is below. Please note that some teams were not in the Premiership for all the seasons that were researched.
Table: Teams losing 1-0 Away from Home at Half Time – Results since 2008
You can sort the columns by clicking on the column headers.
| Team | LOST | DRAWN | WON | Win Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 185 | 59 | 12 | 0.05 |
| Arsenal | 11 | 2 | 3 | 0.1875 |
| Aston Vila | 7 | 5 | 1 | 0.0769 |
| Chelsea | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0.08 |
| Everton | 10 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| Fulham | 12 | 7 | 1 | 0.05 |
| Liverpool | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Manchester City | 8 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Manchester United | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0.1 |
| Newcastle | 9 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Norwich | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0.125 |
| QPR | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0.1 |
| Reading | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Southampton | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Stoke City | 14 | 4 | 3 | 0.142 |
| Sunderland | 13 | 2 | 1 | 0.067 |
| Swansea City | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| West Bromwich Albion | 12 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| West Ham United | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Wigan Athletic | 18 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
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About the Author
Categories: Arsenal (NN), Aston Villa, Betting Tips, Chelsea, EPL Index Featured Article, Everton, Fulham, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester Utd, Newcastle Utd, Norwich City, QPR, Reading, Southampton, Stoke City, Sunderland, Swansea City, Tottenham Hotspur, West Bromwich Albion, West Ham United, Wigan
Tags: Comeback stats, EPL, Half Time Goal Leverage, Losing 1-0 away at Half Time, premier league, Premier League Betting Tips, Premier League Stats
This article has had 3,171 Views
Good read Jonny – very interesting numbers – keep the tips coming!
Thank you very much Statto.
Very interesting article, Jonny. I really enjoyed it.
I recently read a book called ‘Scorecasting: the Hidden Influences behind how Sports are Played and Games are Won’ and there’s lots of stuff in there that relates directly to your ideas about why teams so infrequently pull off a revival.
In a way, their findings contradict yours. They looked at the data and found that in every sport, from golf to football to baseball, the team which percieves that it will LOSE a lead is, in fact, the one which plays more aggressively, while the team who chase a lead tend to play more conservatively.
This is down to loss aversion, and the perception that the LOSS of something which one has (a half-time lead) affects more profoundly the behaviour of managers and players than those who stand to gain (an equaliser, for example).
I was really surprised by this, but their data is quite persuasive. Worth a look, perhaps.
hello Cleanclang. Appreciate you have taken the time to respond. I am slightly confused. I have read about the fear of success where someone is Playing Federer and has not visualized winning so when they do have a chance they blow it.
If I understand you correctly you say ” the team chase a lead” so the team losing 1-0? I have noted that they are passive as they do not want to go 2-0 down but as time decays in football near the end, you may find they are more aggressive and tend to concede as they are open at the back. I read a research paper which said when the home team score, the away team goal expectation is reduced by 10% for 10 minutes.
May well look at the time of the second goal(first goal by away side) to see if there are any trends.
I see Win aversion.
I hope you respond as I am not sure where the contradiction is.
The team that are losing are passive but if still losing near the end they become more aggressive.
For anyone interested I shall be doing one on 0-1 HT very soon which may surprise and I hope interest some people.
Watching so many games it is very common for Team A to dominate and Team to breakaway and score. The best team does not always win.
Possible research as it keeps happening is I have seen some many times where Team A nearly score and Team B go down the other end and Score.
I am wondering if Team A have changed their mindset and dropped their guard as they ponder the missed chance?
Essentially, the argument of loss aversion in the book is that, despite appearances to the contrary, it is the team with the least to lose (in other words, the team who do NOT currently in possession of the lead) who tend to play in a more conservative way.
The team who stand to lose the most (their 1-0 lead) make the wrong choices.
I’m not agreeing or disagreeing, merely pointing out an interesting idea which goes contrary to common sense, or points out the flaws in our perceptions (as most good statistical work often does).
I’m sure that the book in question would lay this out far more clearly than I can.
WBA winning 1-0 at HT at home to Southampton and the away side are 15.0 to win. I think if you did back Southampton then you would be wanting to get a price of around 23.0 to get any value.
Can Southampton break the 20/20 trend this season.
An unlikely FT is 1-1 Most Likely FT is 2-0 followed by 1-0. Very little expectation of Southampton scoring given the data that I am looking at.
I have expectation of a second half goal for Southampton at around 0.59 with expectation of WBA second half goals at 1.11 goals
This is real good work Jonny. Enjoying your thoughts on all of this. Would be good to get something going Live! Haha
If Southampton do win then their win ratio will be 0.5.
2-0 now so looking like 21/21. My suspicion is that this trend will become stronger over the next few seasons. The “fight back” theory does not apply to this scenario for some reason.
2-0 FT. If you believe that expectation of a current score is dependent on the current score and use it as a starting point for a predictive model then you should see long term success.
In the West Brom game at 1-0 HT all the data I have suggests that Southampton are unlikely to win. I then look at the data and discovered that 1-1 was very unlikely at HT. This goes against the research which is why the draw is so short before a game starts.
I then calculated how many goals WBA were likely to score given the current score (1-0) and that came to 1.11. I then looked at Southampton and expectation of second half goals are in effect impeded so no surprise that they did not score in the second half.
The most likely outcome was 2-0 FT as advised at HT and it was 2-0 FT
If only you could use expectation of a lottery ball coming out given some variable. Maybe you can. I am sure I read in a country that the same numbered balls came out two weeks in a row.
expectation of current score should read expectation of goals*
Not even Barca could comeback when 1-0 down at the Mighty Celtic
man utd losing 1-01 at ht and are 3.15 to win … i would be wanting around 20/1 for them to break the trend of this season not winning when down 1-0 away HT
Man utd look like breaking the trend… If you backed Man utd at HT then your bet has won but you certainly were given poor value.
Won 2 drawn 3 lost 6 now for UTD…
Liverpool now drawn 2 and Lost 14.
There appears to be an interest in this data as when EPL INDEX advised that Man UTD had broken the 1-0 HT hoodoo for this season, it was re tweeted 47 times.
newcastle last one away when 1-0 ht down in 2005. at sunderland 4-1