Aston Villa will arrive at Anfield unbeaten in four games and looking forward to the prospect of a Capital One Cup Semi-Final after a 4-1 victory against Paul Lamberts former employers.
Although Villa have only won 1 of their last 16 away matches and only sit above the relegation spots due to goal difference. Even though the may have conceded few, goals have been hard to come by, scoring only 12 in 16 games – the fewest in the league and this could prove awkward to change against a side that have conceded just once in 5 games at Anfield.
Liverpool are slowly moving up the table, only four points off their bitter rivals Everton in fourth and Brendan Rodgers has stated he is targeting a ‘top-two finish’. This may be slightly unrealistic, however Rodgers has started to steady the ship at home, with 3 wins in 4 at Anfield; baring in mind they had only won 3 in 15 before that. There is a renewed hope amongst the faithful, especially after the first back-to-back league victories for a year, against West Ham last week.
Previous Meetings
Many football fans enjoy the jovial mocking of Stewart Downing, who is still yet to score in a reds shirt in the Premiership, since his £20 million move last year. Ironically, his last league goal was the winner against Liverpool, whilst playing for Aston Villa in 2011; a victory that has only come twice in 22 games against The Reds since the Premier League era.
Also Liverpool have only ever lost once in 10 games at Anfield to Villa.
Team News
Jose Enrique, a man who has been on form during this spell for Liverpool, is a major doubt with a hamstring injury and it will be decided right up until the final whistle whether he will have any part in the game.
This means Stewart Downing could continue at left-back, after Rodgers preferring to use the winger in a deeper defensive role, allowing Enrique to push forward.
Luis Suarez, however, is back after missing the win against West Ham last week through suspension.
Darren Bent will miss the entire festive period with a hamstring injury but Joe Bennett is available again after being cup tied. Captain Ron Vlaar and Enda Stevens are recovering from their respective injuries although unlikely to feature due to match fitness.
Ones To Watch
If Liverpool are to challenge for the top four, then they do need a handful of players to start scoring more goals. Only Suarez and a collation of own goals have scored more than once this season. The shooting accuracy of every player (including the Uruguayan) has been below par for too long.
The Scoring stats of Liverpool 12/13
And if you compare the shooting stats to that of Aston Villa, you would not think the latter is languishing near the bottom of the table.
Raheem Sterling is likely to be key once more on Saturday, with his mazy dribbling skills and maturing awareness of forward play, I don’t think it is long before the future star will be assisting his teammate in the goals department.
His shooting accuracy as proven above, is actually joint best with Steven Gerrard, out of all the midfield and forwards.
For Villa, I believe it is crucial that Gabriel Agbonlahor plays well if Lambert wants anything out of the game. The rapid winger is likely to play on the right side and if Enrique is injured for Liverpool, he will be up against his former teammate in Downing; whose positional sense and defensive awareness is not up to the standards of the Premier League, through no fault of his own, however, Agbonlahor could potentially exploit the open space and punish The Reds on the break. Helping Christian Benteke in front of goal is vital, as he still hasn’t scored away from the comfort of Villa Park.
Summary
With the struggles that Villa have had in front of goal alongside the fact Liverpool are starting to look assured in defence, I cannot see anything other than a home win. Obviously Liverpool have not been scoring freely themselves, so a low-scoring game is likely, unless the magician Suarez decides today is a day to wave his magic.
Prediction – Liverpool 2-0 Aston Villa
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Categories: Aston Villa, EPL Index Match Previews, Liverpool
Tags: Aston Villa, Aston Villa Shooting Stats, AVFC Shooting Stats, EPL, epl opta stats, EPL Stats, LFC Shooting Stats, LFC Vs AVFC Match Preview, Liverpool, Liverpool Shooting Stats, Liverpool Vs Aston Villa Match Preview, Liverpool Vs Aston Villa Preview, opta, Opta Stats, premier league, Premier League Match Previews
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Obviously hindsight is 20/20, but even so I feel I can make the following comment about this preview: if it wasn’t written by a Liverpool fan, thenit was written for Liverpools fans. There is next to no analysis of Villa other than a very basic backgrounding of recent results and injured/returning players. For example, in the “Ones to Watch” segement we have a discussion of two Liverpool players – Suarez and Sterling – but only one Villa player. And this was Agbonlahor which any Villa fan could have told you was unlikely to play because of injury. And guess what? He didn’t. This demonstrates that the author has only a very shallow understanding of the Villa side (along with plenty of other commentators to be fair), which is probably why he was so widely off the mark with the result. Most Villa fans were entertaining the possibility that we could come away with something yesterday. Not out of blind hope, but because we can see that our defense is holding up, and that our goals-per-game and goals conceded for the previous four matches is different to our average across the season. We are a team that has been forming but is now “clicking” together, and my hope would have been that reviewers on this site would have been switched-on enough to see this, rather than just lazily making assumptions on current table positions. And I know it is easier for me to say his now (I really wish I’d whinged about this before the game was played), but what’s the point of going through a statistical analysis to make a prediction, if the analysis is so poor that the prediction is pointless.
Hi AussieVillain, thanks for your comment. I couldn’t help but laugh, it was a pleasant treat after a long day! Firstly, I am trying to write a preview on Thursday evening, before press conferences which take place on a Friday and to try and second guess a team is rather difficult. I am going on what fans of the clubs say and internet sources. Nowhere was i told Agbonlahor would be out, even by fans who are in and around the club. Secondly, I am not a Liverpool fan, nor am I writing this for Liverpool fans. The only “bias” i showed was the fact i mentioned Suarez as well as Sterling, however it was only a passing comment on Suarez, i was not stating he was a one to watch because lets be honest, he is ALWAYS one to watch. Infact amusingly there is more said about Abonlahor than Sterling! If you think i am saying more because there is a big picture than i do apologise, i can make my previews less wordy in the future.
Thirdly you believe i am being biased by my score prediction. 2-0 Liverpool has a sound argument and there are plenty of reasons for this. Liverpool have lost ONCE in TEN games to Villa at Anfield.(in the article) Villa have only won TWICE at Anfield since the Premier League began (in the article) Liverpool have 3 wins in 4 at Anfield (in the article) Villa have only won ONE in their last SIXTEEN away matches (in the article) Liverpool have conceded ONCE in FIVE games at Anfield (in the article) AND Villa have scored 12 goals all season (in the article) So, your telling me that with those facts laid out infront of me that you “clicking together” will mean you can win 3-1?! Even you are not that dumb! The odds were very high for that scoreline as well which reflects the general feeling of the bookies (probably the best people for working out the stats!)
Fourthly, you write my “laziness” That is the main reason i am commenting back, usually i would completely ignore ridiculous messages like this, however that is what got to me. These articles take several hours to complete, with all the research that goes into it! I am not denying Villa have picked up slightly, no more than slightly, however you can hardly turn round and say Liverpool havnt looked like a decent outfit of late.
Fifthly, for you to come here and say “hindsight is a wonderful thing” is hideously ironic. NO WAY would you of come anywhere near the post comment section had you lost, NO WAY DID you come anywhere near the post comment section before the game, stating you felt hard done by in this article because every fan, even Villa fans would have thought you a fool. So lastly, please stop being one of those fickle fans who feels the whole world revolves around their club and feels that after one win at Anfield, they can say and do what they want. Thankyou for your time and i hope my response answers the open ended questions you originally made.
Lewis, thanks for your reply, and thanks for your original article. I’m glad I made you laugh, and I know I’m just a whinging Villa fan. My point was that I thought you over-emphasised the wrong facts. Villa’s victory may have been unexpected, but was predictable, and there were plenty of Villa fans who predicted it (and in writing). Of COURSE one has to dismiss these opinions – we’re biased – but they are not without reasons, which is there for everyone to see. I guess I was just hoping that your preview might have looked into these.
For example: Villa had conceded once in it’s last four league games, and the style of play, completed passes, defensive tackles etc has been improving, if haphazardly, across the season (and anyone watching Benteke could see he is a dam about to break). Of course this gets washed out in season long averages, but the point is that VIlla are a team in transition. So is Liverpool, so you need to place more emphasis on recent stats, and less on more distant stats. The idea that you can use the results of previous seasons to predict the same fixture in another season is pretty risky. It is great when one or both teams are on a long trend of predictable performances across seasons (especially when their trends are in different directions). Eg Man Utd, Glasgow Celtic or Barcelona, but notoriously bad with teams who are vibrating around all over the place (such as Villa and Liverpool). In fact it is a notoriously poor tool to predict results when teams are in transition. Agbonlahor’s predicted absence was written up in three previews that I read, including on the AVFC web site. In any case, anyone who has been watching Villa this season knows that he has hardly been the key player. I don’t see (not from what you wrote) why he would have been picked as being the key player. Surely, Lowton with his excellent tackling or completion rate would be worth watching, or Baker or Clark – defenders in a side that doesn’t score too many goals. But I couldn’t pick why you chose Agbonlahor. I can’t argue with the fact that I came on here after the game to make my point. You, and Daniel below are right to call me on it. How I wish I’d come on before then. Fair enough for you to disagree with me – and look, my suggestion that you were a Liverpool fan was out of order (although I never said you were biased). My point, and this stems from before the game was played was this: after reading it, I didn’t really get the impression that there was any real insight into the Villa side, although you seemed pretty familiar with the Liverpool side. As a result, at the time (before the match) I thought the prediction wasn’t based on sound reasoning, when it came to what Villa presented. It might have been correct, but it didn’t seem based on the right analysis to me (you’re 100% correct that Liverpool haven’t been too shabby). I guessed it was because every neutral viewer watches Liverpool, hardly anyone wastes their time with Villa (and after last season why would you) – so the analysis rested on Liverpool, and skated over Villa. I know I biased, I know that I wrote in too late, and I accept you don’t have to agree with me any way. All I would have asked was that previews of this kind do more than just revisit the same old, out-of-date facts.
Thanks again for replying. I appreciate it.
I do still feel aggrieved when you say i am revisiting the same old. out of date facts, because i really am not! I trawl the internet and this site for my stats and facts! However, i am happy to leave the matter now, at the end of the day the reason football is as popular as it is, is because of debate and opinions. Everyone is entitled to their own opinion and none are wrong or right. Although some people do not express these opinions without fact to back it up! I do apologise if you thought i didnt have enough detail on Villa! Keep reading and next time i touch their game, hopefully you will enjoy it!
Cheers
Lewis
What a easy comment to make after they won? No one saw a result in this magnitude so I can hardly believe that many villa fans saw this result coming. Furthermore it made sense that Liverpool had 2 players reviewed as they are a bigger team ( only deluded people would disagree with this?) an that the author felt the two players will have the biggest impact on the game. You won’t get Norwich fans moaning on here if only one player was reviewed when they travel to old Trafford whatever form they are in. The carling cup was a good result for but your last league games have been a 0-0 draw, a 1-1 draw with a team who have won one game all season and a unconvincing 1-0 win over a poor Reading side. So the prediction was made with sound reasoning. I would like to see you correctly predict results every week.