Who was the most creative player in the League last season? That’s a simple enough question but is there a straightforward answer?
Perhaps we need a more quantifiable query. Who created the most chances? That seems better.
Here are the top ten players that created the most chances last season.
Most keen observers of the game would probably have guessed six to eight of those names, but I doubt many would have said Danny Murphy if asked to guess the top ten chance creators from last season.
It’s also interesting to note that there are three Tottenham (or ex-Tottenham, but who played at Spurs last season) players on that list. Apart from Modric, Bale, and VdV, only top scorers City have two players on that list, while five other clubs have a solitary representative. Some might wonder why Spurs didn’t score more goals?
Part of the reason could be that the definition of chances created is fairly simplistic. It’s defined as the final pass or pass-cum-shot leading to the recipient of the ball having an attempt at goal. The weakness of this definition, in the context of creativity, is illustrated by the following graphic depicting the seven chances created by Santi Cazorla against Sunderland in the opening weekend.
Clearly, four of the seven chances are from passes that hardly have any element of creativity or vision involved. Two are simple square passes halfway through the opposition half and a couple have been played out wide to the flank. The fact that the recipient decided to take a shot after receiving the pass makes it a ‘chance created’ but that seems little more than a technicality.
Simply looking at chances created will provide a very skewed picture of the creativity of different players. Perhaps a look at stats for assists will provide an added benchmark.
Silva and Mata are right up there. Both created the most chances and also are the top two (joint in the case of Mata as we’ll soon see) in terms of assists. But it’s a bit jumbled up after that. Modric only has 4 assists from close to a 100 chances created, and Murphy only has 5 from 76.
Furthermore, a list sorted by most assists looks different.
Valencia, Song, and Adebayor are three new entrants in the list as Modric, Murphy, and Van der Vaart make way. Now there is greater balance with clubs that finished in the top four providing two representatives each.
The newcomers however, pose a different conundrum. They’ve picked up relatively more assists from significantly fewer chances created. What’s going on here? Are these players creating better quality chances? For instance, the difference between Mata’s 102 chances created and Valencia’s 65 for 13 assists apiece is stark. Song is in a league of his own for an assist every 4 odd chances.
Clear-Cut Chances
We can dig deeper by adding the stats for clear-cut chances created (CCC) and calculate the ratios of total chances created to CCC and Assists, as well as the number of clear-cut chances created per assist.
VdV, Murphy, and Modric are just included for reference i.e. to maintain continuity from the above discussion, but there are many others who’ve more assists than one or more of these players so we’ll leave them out of further analysis.
Some of these numbers are fascinating. A cursory glance at the stats indicates that Mata wasn’t creating too many high quality chances. Even though he’s picked up the second highest number of assists, his CCC value is lower than his assists and the ratios of chances created to CCC and assists is fairly high. It’s quite possible that he’s picked up some assists where bulk of the work for the goal was done by the scorer or it came from a mistake by an opponent.
It’s worth stating that just because a player has more assists than CCC does not mean every gilt-edged chance he created was converted into a goal. There’s a good possibility some of those were missed (for example: in Stewart Downing’s case all 11 that he created were missed!). The point here is to simply get an indication of the high quality chances that these individuals have created and see how it stacks up against other numbers.
Song is another interesting case. He has a phenomenal rate of picking up an assist from just 4.2 chances created. It could indicate efficiency but it’s also worth noting that Song has a relatively low CCC/Assist ratio. That means he’s created fewer gilt-edged opportunities but picked up more assists. Maybe he should thank Robin van Persie for finishing some of those?
That brings us to the Dutchman who seems to have a very poor TCC/Assist ratio. He’s picking up an assist every 10.2 chances created. It’s tempting to question the quality of chances he’s created but that’s only till we look at his CCC figure. At 21, Robin van Persie was by far the best in the league. Unfortunately, he only picked up an assist every 2.3 clear-cut chances. What it seems to suggest is that Van Persie was creating excellent chances but his teammates weren’t putting them away.
Bale is somewhat similar to van Persie as he has a fairly high CCC/Assist ratio but Adebayor is the exact opposite. He’s virtually picking up two assists for every clear-cut chance created. The Togolese striker might have benefitted from some outstanding finishing by his teammates on more than one occasion.
We can go on with this analysis but I’ll stop and let you spend as much time with the numbers as you want. Hopefully, this exercise has brought forward a few complexities in arriving at conclusions about players on attributes like creativity that are very hard to define. Simply looking at total chances created, or assists, or individuals ratios can be very misleading as they tell a partial story. Even a minutes per chance created figure would only complicate matters further.
For instance, Song seems very efficient with his chance creation but only creates a chance every 65 minutes. In contrast Mata and Silva are prolific, clocking around 25 and 27 minutes respectively. Obviously, their roles are different but can we assume Song would have picked up a lot more assists if he’d been pushed forward into an attacking role more often? Or would he have lost his efficiency?
Ultimately, most opinions around the beautiful game remain subjective but stats provide greater depth. They might not prove something conclusively but they offer food for thought and can help counter some easily formed misconceptions. At the very least they show the importance of looking at a broader range of numbers rather than forming opinions based on a comparison of one or two variables. One also has to factor in the roles of the players, the qualities of their teammates, and the style of play of the team.
Adebayor might have been vital for Spurs’ style but he might have struggled in a dominant City team that often played against packed defences. Silva seems a tad inefficient compared to others but he might have done as well as any individual could in such a dominant side that often had to go through deep-lying, committed defensive walls. Van Persie created a lot and might have benefitted from better support.
I’ll end where I began. Who was the most creative player in the League last season? Take a look at this numbers, fiddle around with other relevant ones in the Top Stats section, and share your own insights.
All of the stats from this article have been taken from our Top Stats area in the Opta Stats Centre at EPLIndex.com – Subscribe Now (Includes author privileges!) Check out our new Top Stats feature on the Stats Centre which allows you to compare all players in the league & read about new additions to the stats centre.
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Categories: Arsenal (NN), Aston Villa, Blackburn Rovers, Bolton Wanderers, Chelsea, EPL Index Featured Article, EPL Index Statistical Comparisons, Everton, Fulham, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester Utd, Newcastle Utd, Norwich City, QPR, Reading, Southampton, Stoke City, Sunderland, Swansea City, Tottenham Hotspur, West Bromwich Albion, West Ham United, Wigan, Wolves
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I like the analysis added here in chances created divided by clear-cut-chances. It does add more context and value to a player’s creativity. Robin van Persie again very impressive as for every 4.4 chances he created one was a clear-cut opportunity for his team mates. Pretty special that.
Yeah that number should stand out but I guess it was lost amidst all the accolades for his goals. Cheers
Excellent analysis. I like how you used CCC and the ratios to try to make sense of the base numbers. That gives an extra dimension to the analysis and better points out the “better” players.
I thought it interesting that Adebayor, Bale, and Modric had such a difference in CCC/Assist. Shouldn’t they be similar, given they are on the same team? Do you have any explanations for that?
Thanks.
I think the difference for those players comes from their positions and styles of play. For instance, Bale probably went behind his man often and created high quality chances, Modric might have created more via through-balls and such, whereas Adebayor probably played with his back to goal and created chances from knock-ons and layoffs. Also worth remembering that if Bale is creating the chance he is probably not the one attempting to finish it but if Ade is creating Bale might be scoring. Such combinations and variations in style might explain the differences you’ve observed.
Top in depth analysis but seems to throw up more questions than answers!
I think that TCC/CCC is the best indicator. It shows whether the player is creating genuine quality through balls/crosses or are they side ways passes that end with a shot from 25 yards. Sorted in order we see why RVP is so highly thought of and why the mighty Barcelona snapped up Song. The lower the ratio of TCC/CCC will always ‘eventually’ lead to assists in the right teams. Thats the stand out stat for me. Any chance we can see this applied to more players maybe that didnt get so many assists or create as many CC because the strikers were weaker ? eg Moses at Wigan or Jarvis at Wolves. Or indeed looking at wingers like Walcott or Sturridge who should create more bearing in mind the teams they play on.
Ha ha! Yes, that was the point, at least in part. It’s very difficult to answer some questions in football. Hopefully, the analysis answers other related questions and provides greater insight about these players.
Here are the TCC/CCC figures for some other players – Baines 6.1; Suarez 8; Jarvis 7; Martin Petrov 4.69!! Cabaye 6.22; Downing 5! Lampard 13.75! N’Zogbia 6.1; Giggs 3.75!! Etherington 5; Rooney 4.63;
Walcott was just outside of the top 50 chance creators but he has a phenomenal TCC/CCC of 3.73! Sturridge hasn’t created many chances and has a TCC/CCC ratio of 8.33; He’s probably missed many easy chances as well.
Thanks for the additional data Statto. Interesting numbers. Makes me ponder. I think Downing is extremely unlucky he suffered from misfiring strikers. I think its criminal the Walcott doesnt make the top 50 CC even if his ratio is very good. Maybe its time for Wenger to move him to a central striking role as his creativity on the wing is lacking. Similar story for Sturridge. I have no doubt these two are both talent English players but wide play just doesnt suit their game. What can I say about Giggs, pure class. Finally, can I get the mean average TCC/CCC ratio for the top 50 chance creators. I want to analyse who is above and below average to guage chances of mean reversion for a few players this year. Also can this exclude set play CC? Finally do you have the ratio for both Victor Moses and Moussa Dembele? Two players who I think will create more in better teams. Thanks & Regards.
I’m a tad busy over the next week, won’t be able to spend time pulling anymore stats. All data is available to subscribers though, so you can sign up and see for yourself. Would love to see the results of your analysis as your approach is sound.
If you add there number of minuted played column, it will give clearer picture.
Looking at minutes per chance created is certainly another interesting angle. But as I explained, that can also be complicated because players have different roles.
For top 10 chance creators this range varies between 24.81 for Mata to 43.51 for Sessegnon.
One could also look at ratio of chances created and assists from set-plays and open-play. Again it would add greater depth but will probably add more questions than answers. For instance Silva has 6 assists from 18 set-piece chances but 9 assists from 86 open play chances
I think it might be worth including Open Play Chances Created in this piece. Mata, Silva, RvP, Bale and Nani are on set piece duty quite often for their respective clubs. Certainly boosts their stats. Might show how impressive the efforts of Adebayor and Song are.
Nice~ and It seems to be quite simple to count CC in set piece of those players. I guess, however, that kinda CC doesn’t boost CCC. which means due to the duty, they might have
higher TCC/CCC. .
From these stats, it seems that Modric to Real Madrid was well worth it actually. Too bad you omitted him from the rest of your analysis as I think it clearly shows why he was so sought after by the biggest clubs including ManUtd, Real and Chelsea.