Since Brendan Rodgers took over at Liverpool, there’s been a lot of speculation about Andy Carroll’s future, with Rodgers himself saying he’d have to “look at” the possibility of loaning out the striker.
Could Andy Carroll fit into the Rodgers style? Swansea’s passing game last season was well documented, so that’s where I started – with a comparison of passing quantity and quality for Liverpool’s and Swansea’s 2011/2012 line-ups. We’re interested in how Carroll might fit in, when set against the types of players that Rodgers assembled at Swansea.
A quick note on data here; I’ve filtered out players who played less than 500 minutes across the season and where a statistic is a quantity rather than a percentage (e.g. number of passes), then I’ve converted it into number per minute played. This deals with players having differing amounts of time on the pitch across a season and makes them comparable.
First up, number of passes played per minute (vertical axis) vs. passing accuracy (horizontal axis). Liverpool players in red and Swansea in blue.
Liverpool Vs Swansea: Passes per minute by Passing Accuracy – Click to enlarge
It’s immediately obvious that Carroll (bottom left hand corner of the chart) plays fewer passes per minute on the pitch and is less accurate with those passes than the majority of Swansea’s 2011/2012 team. Or for that matter, compared to his Liverpool team mates. The hypothesis that Rodgers favours a passing game also looks valid, with a cluster of Swansea players appearing in the top-right corner.
We can discount the two goalkeepers’ passing stats for this analysis, but Twitter provided some immediate and very interesting feed-back on other players who appear in the bottom-left of that first chart. On a purely passing analysis, Carroll looks potentially better than Swansea’s Danny Graham, who played under Rodgers, with Carroll playing more passes (0.35/min vs. 0.21/min) but being less accurate (64% vs. 77% accuracy). Maybe he could fit in a Rodgers team after all?
For me, it depends on how you view the Rodgers philosophy. A passing system could be looked at as favouring quality over quantity and in a “don’t give the ball away” approach, more passes and less accuracy would count significantly against a player. Carroll, on average, misplaced eleven passes per game, while Graham misplaced four.
By that measure, the players look much less similar and Carroll gives the ball away nearly three times as often as Graham.
Another point which jumped out from the first chart was that measured solely on passing accuracy and quantity, Suarez doesn’t look particularly good either, with only 75% pass accuracy and 0.42 passes per minute. If Carroll doesn’t fit, then maybe the same is true for Suarez?
It’s time to step outside passing stats and have a look at what else these players might add to a team. I’ve left passing accuracy on the horizontal axis, but now we have chances created per minute on the vertical and the size of the circles is shots on target per minute.
Liverpool Vs Swansea: Chances created per minute by Passing Accuracy – Click to enlarge
Suddenly, Suarez jumps to the top, with 0.023 chances created per minute and 0.019 shots on target. He’s less accurate with his passing than any player in Swansea’s 2011/2012 team (with the exception of Vorm, the goalkeeper), but valuable in terms of creating goal scoring chances.
Carroll also looks better in this second analysis and he created more chances per minute than any player who was under Rodgers at Swansea last season. As a side note, a few Twitter comments on the original passing analysis picked up that Jay Spearing scored well for passing, but he falls away badly here.
The question which Rodgers must be wrestling with, is how much he is willing to compromise a passing philosophy to generate more goal scoring chances, if at all? Carroll can undoubtedly do damage and create chances, but he will also give the ball away. He might well be an effective player, but is he an effective player of the type that Brendan Rodgers likes? This analysis and some of the manager’s early comments, would suggest not.
To an extent – although it’s possibly an unexpected result – Suarez presents the same problem (Editors note: Surely Suarez’s amount of shots and creativity show his value to the side?). He’s certainly a better player than Carroll, but his passing accuracy still falls short of the level set by Rodgers’ Swansea. Long term, are those goal scoring chances going to be worth the compromise?
All of the stats from this article have been taken from the Opta Stats Centre at EPLIndex.com – Subscribe Now (Includes author privileges!) See Demo’s and videos about the Stats Centre & read about new additions to the stats centre.
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Categories: EPL Index Featured Article, EPL Index Player Profiles, EPL Index Statistical Comparisons, Liverpool, Swansea City
Tags: Andy Carroll, Brendan Rodgers andy carroll, Carroll Stats, Does Carroll fit Rodgers system, epl opta stats, EPL Stats, LFC Stats, Liverpool and Swansea comparison, Liverpool stats, Opta Stats, Suarez Stats, Swansea Stats
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Technically limited and totally devoid of a football brain, Andy “the donkey” Carroll will never fit into any manager’s philosophy much less Rodgers’. Only the clueless and moronic so-called king saw a striker in that donkey.
I think it’s worth noting that a possible explanation for Carroll’s lower passing accuracy is the fact that he’s playing as a target man – he plays many flick-ons with his head as his teammates often just lumped it up to him in the hope that heKd flick it through to Suarez and co. Graham on the other hand has had passes played to his feet all year and thus it’d be easier for him to complete passes more accurately – I don’t think it’s unfair to assume that passes are easier to make with your feet than your head. Might not make a significant difference but one worth noting nonetheless.
It’s a bit like comparing apples and oranges here. You can’t compare Carroll and Graham here when both players were playing different roles in different systems. Same for every player.
The Swansea players have a high percentage pass accuracy because of their possession based passing philosophy which means that often they will pass backwards or sidewards to maintain possession. Liverpool on the other hand last season played a quicker, more counter-attacking game, with more ‘high-risk’ passes involved. In this system Carroll is a target man who has to deal with long diagonal balls and is relying on his strike partner and attacking midfielders to get on the end of his flicks. This explains his poor pass percentage.
I think that Carroll would have no problem fitting into Rodgers system. He is a similar type of player to Danny Graham but much better. The only reason I can think of that he is being linked away from the side is because we need money to bring in quality midfielders.
Also, Borini is a wide attacker not a central one. If Carroll does leave we will need another striker as cover. It doesn’t make sense to let Carroll go unless we really need the money.
Watching clips of Borini I can see that he has a similar sense to Suarez in terms of getting into space. It’s a basic characteristic of any good striker. That’s fine and well for those guys, an important part of their game and it’s exciting to think of two such players coming together and cracking open defences. What makes me think it could be even better is to have that precisely different kind of player that Carroll is. He doesn’t get into space with slick movement and brilliant timing, he just throws himself forward and defenders have little choice but to get out of his way. If we instead had three attacking players all looking to run lines and fit into the channels it would get crowded in that space. Having Carroll there to provide that alternative attacking presence I think can be an ideal complement. It didn’t quite work with Suarez and Carroll in a 2-man attack, but I would love to see what Rodgers can do with two clever runners and one giant geordie. I honestly think it can provide precisely the kind of variation that we’ll need.
Fair point on the flick-ons and it’s one that the editor raised via Twitter when I was playing with the data yesterday too.
Have to leave the question of could Carroll play a passing game for speculation though – we’ve only got data on what he’s been doing. A proportion of his chances created are probably the result of flick-ons, but we come back to does that fit the Rodgers style? Even if you rate Andy Carroll as a target man, I think the answer to that one is no.
Agree with comments above regarding the stats on Carroll. His pass completion will be lower by the nature in which he was used. I didn’t see much of Newcastle in their Championship season so don’t know how he was used there. I don’t suppose there’s any data which differentiates between passes on the ground (easier to control) and those in the air? I have to disagree with the Donkey comment above though. It’s a view pedalled by those prejudiced by what they see with their eyes (miscontrol under pressure from a bruising centre back, flick on to no one, when someone should have been there possibly).
Also interesting re: Spearing here. My criticism of him, purely on a visual level, has been that he gives the ball away far too much. Stats contradict that, in a way. However, low chance creation suggests he takes v few risks with his passing. He has been deployed in a DM role in the absence of Lucas, and this arguably is best position. I suspect he isn’t good enough for Liverpool and Rodgers, however there may be a useful trade off in is ability to win possession.
Thanks for the analysis, great stuff. Carroll remains an enigma.
Interesting point RE Spearing Rob. His passing statistics were the highest for the LFC side on a regular basis last year however it’s true that most of these passes were very short side to side and if they went forward they were also very simple. I think our mind plays tricks on us, we see a player we don’t want to see and note all of the times he loses the ball even though he may lose the ball the least in the side – it’s a natural thing to happen and stats make us realise that we do this. However your second point about not making risky passes is very true. Spearing sparks a lot of debate – should be written about a lot more – Hah!
The Newcastle comparison is interesting. In 2010/11 at Newcastle, Carroll’s passing accuracy was actually a little worse than it’s been at Liverpool (61%).
Unfortunately we don’t get data on types of passes received, that could be used to slice what the player managed to do with each type.
We do know that for two different clubs across two seasons, he had poor passing accuracy. Either he was used as a target man because he’s a relatively limited striker and that’s what he can do, or his potential as a good passer of the ball hasn’t been tapped yet.
Purely personal opinion now. I’m going with option A.
Does he need to be a good passer to be effective? It comes down to what’s asked of him and I don’t see anyone putting him in a position where he needs to do much more than take a touch and return a short pass to the nearest runner or from whence it came. There is plenty of scope for keeping it simple and of course while it’s important to make your passes playing the kind of football that Rodgers will want, they don’t all have to be difficult passes. Anyone who has made it to this level, no matter what kind of derisory comments get aimed at them from disgruntled fans, is a decent footballer capable of finding a team mate 5 yards away. Carroll may or may not develop better passing skills as he gets along in his career but I’m not yet convinced that he needs them to make a difference.
On the other hand, if it turns out that even those simple return passes start going astray and he can’t even find the last player who passed him the ball in the first place, well … that’s a problem. I’m just not yet convinced that this will be the case. Carroll tried to do things for Kenny that he wasn’t yet ready for and while that’s admirable, I don’t think it made sense. He’s going to have to prove that with a lower set of expectations (simply in terms of passing the ball) he can do the job that is required. Would that actually be enough? I have no idea and again I’m happy to defer to Rodgers on this one. He’s the only one who can work out if Andy has enough basic passing skill to fit in the team.
I think there are a ton of things to consider.
Firstly, Rodgers will want to keep possession, sure, but he also points out that obviously possession is no good unless you are able to penetrate and draw defenders out. In any situation, if a team is pressing us deep into our own half or even if we can maintain control in theirs, it’s vital to be able to make those movements that pierces through a defence and forces them to adjust. When every other player might be covered or unable to provide anything, Carroll can be the kind of target that, perhaps with a bit more control and purpose than just “lumping it forward”, we can use to provide that outlet. It doesn’t have to be a 30 yard pass, Carroll is difficult to defend in any situation. His physicality allows him to get into spaces that other strikers can’t and he does posses an occasionally good touch. If we are ever in that position of being unable to break down a stubborn defence it will be someone like Andy who become essential simply because he does what others can not. It can still very much fit the philosophy of what Rodgers will want to do, but the question will be more in a practical sense of can the team make it work. I have no doubt that he’ll get them to try.
Secondly, I saw plenty of evidence last season that despite working hard to get a touch or a head to a long ball forward, Carroll often simply had no one to pass to in the front third. Look back over the season and try to remember any time when those long passes were accompanied with other players looking for those spaces around AC where they could pick off that second touch ball and simply take advantage of what he’d already done. If he’s just a big giant up front by himself, glancing headers and short touches to players who are not even near him, it makes entire sense that his pass completion rate is so poor. But it doesn’t make it his fault. A more focused strategy of getting players in position to clean up those lose scraps from a hard-fought contest will massively improve Carroll’s pass-completion statistics.
A third consideration is completely away from the attacking end of things. This is still English football. There will still be a West Brom, a QPR, a Wigan and similarly set-up teams that will want to take advantage of set piece plays. As much as Carroll is known as a striker it’s just petulant to insist that he should only be valuable in attack. He’s a big lad who can win a contest to get to the ball and that’s vital in defending against teams that can’t otherwise break us down. Name any potential replacement striker who can do that as well as he can, there are very few. Carroll might not always get the best of contact, but he almost always get some and when you’re defending that’s usually enough. We simply can’t discount that kind of contribution.
Finally, you have to imagine that Carroll will grow as a player and in fact much of those stats under analysis are covering an entire season, most of which had him in very questionable form. It’s not an excuse or a reason to go easy on him, simply a more practical assessment. If Carroll can continue to be a better player, more like the player we saw towards the end of the year, surely those stats would have to change. Rodgers wouldn’t be a manager worth his salt if he didn’t think he could improve a player and Carroll is a lad with lots of talent but also plenty of room to improve. So if Rodgers can add another 50% to what we saw at the end of the year, wouldn’t that count for much more in terms of putting a totally different evaluation on Carroll’s potential contribution?
Anyway, for all that we can speculate it’s actually up to the gaffer to work this one out. He’s the one who knows what systems he wants to play and only he’ll be able to see if Andy Carroll has even the slightest hope of being able to fit in. I suspect if there is a potential move for him away from the club, as a loan or a permanent signing, it won’t be until quite late in August. Rodgers will want to spend every possible minute evaluating the true potential of Liverpool’s most expensive signing before he casts him aside.
Superb response that – nice change from abusive responses we seem to get a lot on this site.
LFC must keep Carroll at all cost.
Whilst I agree with everything Adam said, you have to remember that the Swansea players probably didn’t have such good passing stats before they got it coached into them to play that way.
The Liverpool players should be, on the whole, better footballers – and should respond to become even better at ball retention than Swansea. The big question hers is whether Carroll will respond to that coaching and improve as an all-round player, or just lose out on his effectiveness at what he did well before whilst striving for the new style of play.
Personally I really hope he stays, as I think there is a GREAT player struggling to get out. We all saw what he did to Chelsea at the end of that season…. hone that power as part of a skilled and tactically mature passing team and he will be formidable!
It’s all speculation isn’t it? I remember thinking that Kenny could be considered in some way responsible for the way that Alan Shearer developed as a player. Maybe that’s not the case at all, but I recall it being something that Kenny talked about once, comparing Shearer to Carroll and how he signed Shearer as a raw young player from Southampton. Maybe Kenny fancied himself to repeat the feat, signing a record transfer fee for a British player and turning him into a superstar. It probably says a lot more about Kenny that it hasn’t worked out that way. I honestly wonder what he thought he was getting when he signed Carroll for that much money, especially considering who else we could have had. He never seemed to use him properly and I wonder if he just had unrealistic expectations. Shearer scored 16 goals in 21 games for Blackburn before doing his knee so I think the comparison falls down very quickly. Does Carroll have any of that kind of potential and, if he does, does Rodgers think he can bring it out?
I would say that these tests unfairly favour Danny Graham’s stats over Andy Carroll. AC was playing a system where the quality of pass given to him was much lower than DG’s service and you could say that the Liverpool style under Dalglish did not suit AC’s game (hence the goal drought).
DG on the other hand was picked solely because of his movement in and around the box as displayed with his previous impressive tally in the championship. He was picked as the focal point of a pass and move game, for his ability to trap and turn and clever movement.
But his finishing was sporadic and sometimes poor, he missed a lot of really good chances that better strikers would have put away. AC is definitely a better striker overall than DG (based on his overall career), but his game suits him running on to the pass or a long ball game. He is built to be the focal point for a long pass and then either trap and hold for oncoming strikers or midfielders, or as we saw with his goal in the Euro’s – the target for a long cross between defenders.
DG got himself in some really good positions and scored some really good goals from clever movement (like the goal against Liverpool) but also often missed really, really good chances.
AC’s effectiveness will be judged on his ability to trap and turn or to be clever about his positioning in and around the box. If he can develop that part of his game then he could be a top scorer this season, if he can’t, I guess he will be loaned out. The cards are stacked against AC staying at Liverpool, but until you see him play in a system like Rodgers employs, you won’t really see his potential.
Its not Andy’s fault that LFC players always lumped up the ball to him. In those cases you are very likely to lose the ball as you never had a chance to control it anyways. But, still i think as the season got on, he got better at keeping and sheltering the ball. BR can just XXXX off really. I would much rather keep Andy then let these Chelsea reject’s flood the halls of LFC. Joe Cole should be just simply made into a eunuch and told to XXXX off for his role in selling Chelsea to Hazard. The board is mad, the coach is a piece of upjumped shit really. Do i see him surviving 30 games, i don’t. I will not be hopeful this is going to be any better than the Roy experiement. That ended with a £16 million payoff for Rafa and Roy. Sale of Masch below market value. signing of Joe cole at a £15 mill loss already. Konchesky and the loss of prized academy players. Exit of Insua for a bag of chips. Christian Polusen payoff. Add it all up. This BR experience will cost us more.
Wow.. SSR you clearly don’t have much of a football brain. Those comments was just a useless waste of time. Is Andy bigger than the club.. No. Do I trust Brendan Rodgers in whatever he tries to implement.. Yes. If he wants to sell AC, I rate he’s pretty spot on with what he’s got in mind. Brilliant article, I do believe AC should let himself prove his worth, however I just can’t see him fitting in the system. Walcott for me would be an ideal man to play upfront in that DG role.