Does a “clutch” goal scorer exist in the EPL? A player who seems to always score goals when the team needs them most. A player who, when the game is on the line, steps up and finishes. This is, of course, a tough question to answer. How do we even define a “clutch” moment? Is a game winning goal in the 90th minute more clutch than a tying goal in the last game of the season? Is a goal to go ahead by 3 in the 70th minute more clutch than a goal to cut the opponent’s lead to 2 in the 35th minute?
Not so clutch?
Methodology
To start to quantify these questions, I have created an outcome probability calculator on my blog, Soccer Statistically. This calculator allows you to input the venue, minute, and goal differential of the game. Based on these inputs, you the team’s chance of winning, drawing and losing are given to you. These percentages are calculated based on historical EPL data. Basically, I aggregated EPL game data from previous seasons, and calculated a percent chance of the team winning, losing and drawing in every game situation. Overall there are 90 x 2 x 7 = 1260 of these situations in a game. In some situations, the percentages stray from the nice trend which is exhibited for the rest of the game. To solve this problem, I regressed over the data to create nice trend lines which extrapolate in instances when there is not enough data. This allows us to have an outcome probability for every situation. If you want to try out the calculator yourself, here is a link.
So what does this have to do with clutch goal scoring? Using these outcome probabilities, I am able to quantify the true value of each goal. The problem with ranking goal scorers just based on the number of goals they have scored is that it values each goal equally. Why should the game winning goal in the 90th minute be valued the same as the 5th goal in a 5-0 win? They clearly do not have the same value to the team. To solve the problem I created a metric called Expected Points Added, which weights each goal based on the probability it adds to the team winning. To simplify matters, I multiplied each probability by 3 to instead get the points added, which is a little easier to understand in my opinion. This way, the go ahead goal, at home, in the 34th minute is worth .87 expected points because it increases the team’s expected points by .87. Similarly, the tying goal, away, in the 65th minute is also worth .87 expected points. Each of these goals, although in very different scenarios, increase a team’s expected points by the same amount.
Analysis
Now that I had a way to measure the true value of each goal a player scores, I was able to do this for every goal of the entire season and then re-rank the top goal scorers. This goal scorers list is ranked based on Expected Points Added, not goals. My list is similar to the actual top goal scorers list. However, there are many interesting changes. Some players, based on their goals, either underperform or over-perform when the weight of each of their goals is taken in to account. To measure this, I also created another metric called Average Goal Weight, which is just the player’s Expected Points Added divided by the number of goals they have scored. This measures how valuable, on average, the player’s goals have been this season. Players with a low Average Goal Weight could be seen as “overrated” based on just their number of goals scored, while players with a high Average Goal Weight could be seen as “underrated” based on their goal total.
Below is the table for the 25 players with the highest Expected Points Added this season:
Expected Points Added Top 25
On the Next Page: Analysis of the Expected Points Added – Top 25 list…
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About the Author
Categories: Arsenal (NN), Aston Villa, Blackburn Rovers, Bolton Wanderers, Chelsea, EPL, EPL Index Featured Article, EPL Index Statistical Comparisons, Everton, Fulham, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester Utd, Newcastle Utd, Norwich City, QPR, Stoke City, Sunderland, Swansea City, Tottenham Hotspur, West Bromwich Albion, Wigan, Wolves
Tags: AFC, BWFC, CFC, Clutch, Clutch Goalscorers, efc, EPL, epl opta stats, ffc, goal scorers, LFC, MCFC, MUFC, NCFC, NUFC, QPR, Robin Van Persie, SAFC, SCFC, THFC, WAFC, Wayne Rooney, WBA
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Very interesting indeed – excellent post. I think I will be using the calculator myself!
Interesting piece. RVP has 5 true game winners at home and only 2 away(games won by only 1 goal)this season. There is scope to study value of goals away from home. In 2010/2011 home wins 47% draw is 29% away win is 24%. Away wins were twice as rare as homes in that season.
I’ve been looking into similar stuff as your piece does for about a month or so now, time weighted, situation weighted, goals scored at -1,0,+1 etc and the data does vary wildly from season to season. Which causes predictive issues.
Eg, this season there has been 55 home wins and 57 away wins by only a single goal. In 2010/2011 there was 93 home wins and 45 away wins. The goals scored in these games are true game winners, greater value than goals at +1, but by how much more??
Good piece
Just for readers context….
RVP goals at home
-2 n/a
-1 3
0 9
+1 2
+2 n/a
+3 n/a
+4 1
Away
-5 1
-4 n/a
-3 n/a
-2 1
-1 2
0 5
+1 1
+2 n/a
+3 1
RVP is just a very strong even strength scorer with little stat padding , which he has had to be and was expected as he is the only forward of any true skill at Arsenal.
At the crucial -1,0,+1 stage of the game he is 14 goals at home and 8 away. Even superstars like RVP can’t tilt the field in his teams favour away from home as much as he does at home.
Thanks for those comments – very informative! Contact us if you wish to contribute to the site statistically!
The concept of a clutch goal does exist as the importance of a goal scored varies with different scenerios. Its however not a coincidence that particular players always pop up to score such goals. Take Lampard for example; you always know that when crucial goals are needed either to win a match or to kill a game, he will most likely score. I think it’s a useful indicator that gives a measure of a player’s self confidence, commitment to the team and ability to make quick and wise decisions. This index could and should be used as such. As for a 5th goal in a 5-0 win, an addition of say 0.2 points for the player may be fair because a game isn’t really over until the final whistle. That said, this post was quite insightful and I just hope the idea finds some usefulness.
Nice work! I always find this stuff interesting. No surprise on the top 3 I guess. RVP really is the MVP this year. I wonder if you’ve seen similar stat work here: http://11tegen11.wordpress.com/2011/10/04/eredivisie-top-scorers-chart-based-on-win-points-added/. There’s always interesting posts on 11tegen11, and I wonder if you could use his metrics in the EPL. Thanks!
Thanks for the comment Gerson. I follow the 11tegen11 blog closely, there is always a lot of interesting analysis. 11tegen11′s win points added is very similar to what I did here, and we’ve talked a little bit about how to improve it. They do it a little differently, but the intended outcome is the same.